This map, made by Thomas Van Linge (@ThomasVLinge on Twitter), shows the situation of the civil war in Myanmar. The green areas are currently under control of the military regime, while areas in other colors are controlled by the Resistance or other ethnic armed organizations. It is clear that the Tatmadaw is losing power in several areas. While ethnic armed organizations already had control over extended territories, the red regions fell under the control of the PDF in just a few months.
Even in the “green” regions, the generals don’t have complete control. There is no popular support for the military, and the only way it can exercise power, is through brutal force and violence.
The generals can’t generate trust and consensus. It is unable to effectively enforce its laws or provide security to its few supporters (i.e. all the local administrators and informants who have been killed). It is failing to collect taxes and bills. Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing could not even visit Putao (Kachin State) in at least two different occasions, because of security concerns.
The Burmese army is getting weaker day by day. There are no new recruits, and thousands soldiers may be ready to defect at the first chance.
The Tatmadaw is nothing but a criminal organization. Yes it has weapons, and yes it is controlling key infrastructures at the moment, but it is far from stable, and its fall looks much closer today than one year ago.
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